Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 9.954244 11.681557 13.569436 15.779435 18.288675 21.042103 24.284844
2025-01-26 7.724609 10.190626 13.152402 16.939404 21.617411 27.169128 34.214803
2025-02-02 6.151796 8.977336 12.653118 17.707321 24.386889 32.814181 44.136833
2025-02-09 5.053200 8.058986 12.249509 18.376874 26.939938 38.292681 54.254017
2025-02-16 4.063390 7.045798 11.479718 18.335675 28.406149 42.350067 62.737487
2025-02-23 3.218287 6.052497 10.533477 17.835474 29.065116 45.239441 69.732464
2025-03-02 2.528293 5.151711 9.555447 17.100547 29.215674 47.314496 75.616186
2025-03-09 2.102777 4.610147 9.052523 17.009470 30.275959 50.728042 83.596627
2025-03-16 1.729398 4.080732 8.475572 16.695777 30.906301 53.478443 90.700474
2025-03-23 1.576599 3.950001 8.581509 17.547605 33.494070 59.418541 103.025183
2025-03-30 1.367559 3.656180 8.333352 17.723314 34.927018 63.576426 112.760110
2025-04-06 1.173832 3.352103 8.014844 17.719011 36.022626 67.223137 121.849018
2025-04-13 1.003626 3.071642 7.716445 17.746326 37.229181 71.226357 131.924981
2025-04-20 0.958694 3.091989 8.058901 19.080622 40.956133 79.782807 150.090066
2025-04-27 0.881386 3.011020 8.167086 19.948793 43.875749 87.114795 166.585496
2025-05-04 0.804202 2.911639 8.217085 20.696151 46.615415 94.281706 183.158967
2025-05-11 0.691050 2.679088 7.916555 20.652767 47.792372 98.700777 195.171920
2025-05-18 0.569966 2.385724 7.415701 20.099857 47.886467 101.125622 203.766950
2025-05-25 0.458263 2.084213 6.836245 19.286204 47.355731 102.326258 210.193608
2025-06-01 0.392072 1.915726 6.576470 19.185385 48.301135 106.358328 221.943688
2025-06-08 0.327716 1.730336 6.234378 18.837821 48.675291 109.292541 231.786177
2025-06-15 0.310229 1.722744 6.402391 19.781482 51.957179 118.094464 252.991938
2025-06-22 0.273986 1.624917 6.284325 19.976047 53.566861 123.640395 268.247452